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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Paris:20260421T120000
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SUMMARY:Séminaire: Joël Cariolle (FERDI)
DESCRIPTION:Séminaire d’économie de Bordeaux\n  \nJoël Cariolle\n(FERDI\, Université Clermont Auvergne\,  CNRS-IRD-CERDI) \n \n » Digital disasters: The macroeconomic costs of submarine cable breaks « \nAbstract: » I estimate the macroeconomic costs of disruptions to submarine cables—the backbone of international data traffic—using a new dataset covering high-\, middle-\, and low-income countries from 2008 to 2020. Exploiting plausibly random variation in the timing and duration of disruptions\, I use a dynamic staggered difference-in-differences design to quantify both direct losses for disrupted countries and spillovers to regional non-disrupted peers. I find robust\, large\, and persistent growth losses\, alongside synchronized contractions in private consumption and trade. Disruptions create within-region reallocation in favor of non-disrupted economies. Accounting for spatial spillovers\, the total effect is negative and substantial\, a typical 10 repair-days disruption implying a cumulated 5-7 percentage points drop in GDP per capita growth in the medium run. Evidence on bandwidth-intensive services trade\, foreign investment\, and labor productivity points to reallocation forces\, accompanied by a tightening of credit to domestic actors and a weakening of cross-border banking relationships. Route redundancy fully dampens estimated losses\, pointing to digital infrastructure resilience as a first-order policy margin. «  \n \n \n \n \n \n– Séminaire organisé par le programme 3 / BSE –\n \n  \n>> pour assister au séminaire via Zoom\, contacter julie.vissaguet@u-bordeaux.fr \n\n \nAgenda > Tous les événements\n\n \n  \n  \n 
URL:https://www.bse.u-bordeaux.fr/agenda/seminaire-joel-cariolle-ferdi/
LOCATION:BxSE\, salle de séminaire H2-116\, bât.H\, campus Pessac\, avenue Leon Duguit\, Pessac\, 33600
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