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Workshop: Assessing the Impact of Poverty and Social Transfers during Crises: Micro-simulation and Real Time Analyses
co-organisé par BSE (Ulugbek Aminjonov, Olivier Bargain, Tanguy Bernard) et la Banque Mondiale (Ruth Hill)
The goal of this workshop is to assess approaches to understanding the impacts of fiscal response to shocks ex-ante or in real time, with a retrospective look at the COVID-19 crisis in particular. Given the compact format, presenters are requested to discuss results briefly and to focus mainly on methodological issues (how they did the modelling, data challenges, modelling assumptions that lacked grounding, etc.). In this logic, the roundtable would aim to take stock on key methodological developments and challenges, with the underlying objective to identify ways to improve the research for later improvement in policies.
April 28, 2022
8 am New Orleans time (UTC-6) 9 am DC time (UTC-5)
2 pm London time (UTC)
3 pm Bordeaux/Paris time (UTC+1)
Program (DC time)
9:00-9:05 Ruth Hill (World Bank) & Olivier Bargain (Bordeaux School of Economics & IZA): Opening
9:05-9:30 Ugo Gentilini (World Bank): “Monitoring anti-COVID-19 social programs globally” 9:30-9:40 Discussion
9:40-10:00 Nora Lustig (CEQ Institute & Tulane University): “The impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and expanded social assistance on inequality, poverty and mobility in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico”
10:00-10:10 Discussion
10:10-10:30 Holguer Xavier Jara (London School of Economics): “The role of automatic stabilizers and emergency tax–benefit policies during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ecuador”
10:30-10:40 Discussion
10:40-11:00 Tanguy Bernard (Bordeaux School of Economics & IFPRI): “Gimme Shelter. Social Distancing and Income Support in Times of Pandemic”
11:00-11:10 Discussion
11:10-11:30 Break
11:30-11:50 Sailesh Tiwari (World Bank): “Estimating the impact of COVID-19 and COVID-19-response on poverty and inequality using microsimulation for Indonesia and 2020-21 survey data”
11:50-12:00 Discussion
12:00-12:20 Horacio Levy (OECD): “Nowcasting and Provisional Estimates based on microsimulation techniques”
12:20-12:30 Discussion
12:30-12:50 Emily Aiken (UC Berkeley) & Suzanne Bellue (University of Mannheim): “Machine learning and phone data can improve targeting of humanitarian aid”
12:50-13:00 Discussion
13:00-14:00 Roundtable: The discussion will focus on two crucial aspects: (i) Strengths and weakness of data and analysis, (ii) Which data and tools to analyse and nowcast, what investments in data and modeling tools need to be made?
Chair: Olivier Bargain (Bordeaux School of Economics & IZA)
Guests: Peter Lanjouw (Luxembourg Income Studies), Tanguy Bernard (Bordeaux School of Economics & IFPRI), Nora Lustig (CEQ Institute & Tulane University), Gabriela Inchauste (World Bank), Francisco H. G. Ferreira (London School of Economics), Herwig Immervoll (OECD).
14:00 End (New Orleans time: 13:00, Bordeaux time; 20:00) Organization committee:
Olivier Bargain (Bordeaux School of Economics & IZA) Tanguy Bernard (Bordeaux School of Economics & IFPRI) Ruth Hill (World Bank)
Ulugbek Aminjonov (Bordeaux School of Economics)