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Séminaire d’économie de Bordeaux

Patrick Pintus

(AMSE & CNRS)

A novel and parsimonious approach to track pandemics and assess vaccine effectiveness in real time using population data, with an application to COVID-19 in France

Abstract: Public health policies in pandemic times due to infectious and emerging diseases heavily rely on indicators to track viral circulation.  We explore a novel approach that takes into account the volume of testing so as to accurately measure viral speed and acceleration.  To that end, we propose an acceleration index and show how it corrects an important bias of the reproduction number by controlling for time-varying tests in a parsimonious way. Based on real-time data, unit-free and model-free, it is useful to compare groups (depending on age or vaccine status for example) or geographical units over time, possibly at very granular levels. In particular, we apply the  acceleration index to track COVID-19 and study vaccine effectiveness using population data in France.

>> L’indicateur est présenté dans le papier PLOS One 
>> Sa relation au reproduction number est présentée dans le papier MedRXiv 

>> Pour assister au séminaire en visioconférence (Zoom), vous pouvez contacter communication.bse@u-bordeaux.fr