Sébastien Carrère 

Preventing downward mobility through social protection: evidence from the AUH in Argentina 

Abstract: In this paper, I estimate the impact of a large-scale family allowance program on short-term income mobility of poor and vulnerable households in Argentina – the Universal Child Allowance (AUH), one of the largest conditional cash transfer programs in Latin America. Based on microdata from the national Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH) household survey for 2004-2013, I apply a quasi-experimental difference-in-difference methodology to estimate the intention-to-treat effect of the program. I measure income mobility through its non-directional (absolute mobility intensity) and directional (income gain or loss) definition using the rotating data structure. The results suggest that the AUH reduces the intensity of income mobility and decreases short-term income fluctuations by about 20% for eligible households when compared to non-eligible ones. In addition, when households experience downward income mobility, the program acts as an effective protection and mitigates income losses by 30 to 50%. Results of the program’s effect on upward income mobility remain ambiguous.