Omar Joya et Eric Rougier

 

Afghanistan’s recent development story is filled with few paradoxes; poverty increased between 2007 and 2016 despite strong economic growth and massive aid inflows, while in the subsequent period until 2020, poverty moderated despite growing insecurity and declining off-budget aid. This report attempts to better understand some of the dynamics behind the evolution of poverty in Afghanistan in the past two decades. In doing so, it undertakes a statistical and econometric analysis of the correlates of poverty in the country, combining household-level and regional-level data drawn from four rounds of household survey since 2007. Based on the results, it proposes a policy framework to guide development interventions for poverty alleviation in Afghanistan, equally informed by past policy failures in poverty reduction, the political economy context as well as drivers of fragility in the country. The framework not only proposes a set of economic and structural policies for short, medium and long terms, it also suggests some institutional arrangements that would ensure increased effectiveness in poverty reduction efforts supported by the international community.