Catherine LIS-CASTIBLANCO

 Adaptation to Extreme Temperature Shocks in French Viticulture: Are Grape Growers « Dumb Farmers »?

Abstract: This study exploits spatial heterogeneity in yield responses to temperature to project climate change impacts on French grape production, explicitly accounting for both historical and potential future adaptation. Using an original farm-level dataset merged with daily weather observations, we first show that yield losses from frost and extreme heat are smaller in regions historically exposed to such conditions—suggesting long-run adaptation. Incorporating this heterogeneity into forward-looking simulations, we then find that grape yields are expected to increase overall under climate change, with northern regions benefiting the most. This contrasts starkly with the negative outcomes typically reported for staple crops. Moreover, allowing for future adaptation—by extrapolating current cross-regional yield responses to future climates—leads to even more optimistic projections. Comparing these estimates to those produced by a standard model with uniform yield responses further highlights the importance of accounting for both forms of adaptation when modeling climate impacts.

Accounting for Phenological Advances in Climate Impact Projections: Evidence from Bordeaux PDO Red-Wine Yields

Abstract: Most empirical projections of climate impacts on crop yields use calendar-fixed growing seasons, even though phenology advances with warming, particularly in perennials. Here, we assess how incorporating phenological advancement alters estimates of climate impacts on wine yields in Bordeaux’s red appellations. We pair a standard fixed-effects econometric design with temperature-based phenology models, estimating yield–weather responses and applying them to projected climate over growing seasons that shift with warming. We first document a nonlinear and asymmetric yield–weather relationship, with temperature and precipitation extremes causing losses. Using our varying-season model, we then project late-century yield declines of 3% under a high-emissions scenario. By contrast, fixing the growing season to a historical window misstates relevant climate changes and biases impact estimates toward small gains (1%). These findings argue for phenology-aware growing-season timing as standard practice in impact projections for perennial crops.

 The Financialization of the Bulk Wine Market: Toward the Launch of a Futures Market?

Abstract: The creation of a futures market for bulk wine could play a key role in managing price risk, particularly in a context of heightened volatility and climate-related uncertainty. This paper examines whether bulk wine can be considered a commodity and thus a suitable candidate for futures trading. Using weekly price data for bulk red and rosé wines from Italy, France, and Spain, we evaluate two conditions: whether market participants treat bulk wine as a homogeneous product and whether prices exhibit significant volatility. The first condition is assessed through cointegration analysis, while the second is analyzed using variance models of price returns. We find substantial and persistent price volatility but insufficient product homogeneity to justify a unified bulk-wine futures contract at present. Future research should therefore prioritize the estimation of precise price-risk measures to inform the design of appropriate risk management tools tailored to bulk wine markets.